Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Duke 88.7%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 14 - 6 +16.9      +9.4 7 +7.5 10 76.6 35 0.0 1 0.0 1
6 Virginia 88.1%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 14 - 6 +16.6      +4.0 73 +12.6 1 53.4 348 0.0 1 0.0 1
16 Florida St. 76.2%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 8 13 - 7 +14.4      +7.4 20 +7.1 14 72.1 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 North Carolina 69.9%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 12 - 8 +13.6      +8.0 12 +5.6 41 73.5 66 0.0 1 0.0 1
26 Louisville 68.4%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 8 +13.0      +7.1 23 +6.0 30 66.5 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
35 Syracuse 50.4%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 10 11 - 9 +11.2      +6.8 24 +4.4 66 68.7 182 0.0 1 0.0 1
43 Miami (FL) 48.3%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 10 - 10 +10.5      +6.6 30 +3.9 73 69.0 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
48 North Carolina St. 42.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 10 +9.9      +6.1 37 +3.9 72 71.7 100 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 Clemson 40.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 9 - 11 +9.8      +3.5 86 +6.3 25 64.8 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
56 Virginia Tech 38.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 11 +9.5      +3.7 80 +5.8 34 63.2 309 0.0 1 0.0 1
63 Georgia Tech 35.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 11 +9.1      +3.2 93 +5.9 32 71.8 95 0.0 1 0.0 1
70 Notre Dame 25.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 12 +8.1      +5.5 44 +2.5 99 68.8 179 0.0 1 0.0 1
87 Pittsburgh 18.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 7 - 13 +6.4      +2.3 115 +4.0 68 63.3 305 0.0 1 0.0 1
101 Boston College 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 6 - 14 +4.7      +2.5 105 +2.1 107 70.9 120 0.0 1 0.0 1
103 Wake Forest 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 6 - 14 +4.6      +3.9 77 +0.7 146 72.4 81 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 3.5 29.9 18.8 13.4 10.3 7.3 5.4 4.2 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2
Virginia 3.6 28.3 19.0 13.9 9.7 7.6 5.9 4.4 3.4 2.6 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2
Florida St. 4.9 16.6 14.6 12.7 10.4 9.6 7.9 6.5 5.2 4.4 3.9 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.6
North Carolina 5.7 11.9 11.1 10.8 10.1 9.4 8.7 7.5 6.7 6.0 5.2 4.4 3.3 2.5 1.6 0.9
Louisville 5.9 10.1 10.6 10.6 10.2 9.6 9.1 8.2 6.7 6.3 5.0 4.4 3.4 2.7 1.9 1.2
Syracuse 6.8 6.5 8.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.6 7.7 7.2 6.7 5.6 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.1
Miami (FL) 7.4 5.1 6.2 7.4 8.4 8.6 8.2 8.4 7.9 7.9 7.1 7.0 6.1 4.9 4.0 2.7
North Carolina St. 7.8 4.4 5.2 6.2 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.8 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.8 5.7 4.7 3.1
Clemson 8.1 3.7 4.8 6.0 7.0 7.1 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.5 8.0 7.6 6.9 6.4 5.5 3.7
Virginia Tech 8.4 2.9 4.2 5.3 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.7 8.4 8.6 8.4 8.1 6.9 5.8 3.9
Georgia Tech 8.8 2.7 3.3 4.4 5.6 6.2 7.1 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.9 8.8 8.9 7.8 6.7 4.7
Notre Dame 9.4 1.8 2.4 3.6 4.3 5.5 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.6 9.1 8.7 6.5
Pittsburgh 10.4 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.7 7.5 8.5 8.8 10.7 11.6 12.1 11.7
Boston College 11.4 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.3 4.0 4.8 6.1 7.5 9.2 11.2 13.3 16.1 18.1
Wake Forest 11.5 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.8 6.1 7.6 9.2 10.8 12.7 16.2 19.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.2 5.0 6.4 8.3 10.2 12.0 12.6 12.2 10.9 8.0 4.6 1.6
Virginia 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.5 4.9 7.1 8.4 10.1 11.8 12.8 12.2 10.3 7.9 4.1 1.6
Florida St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.6 9.4 10.5 10.7 11.1 10.1 8.5 6.4 4.4 2.1 0.6
North Carolina 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.9 4.9 6.5 8.0 8.7 10.1 10.9 10.2 9.3 8.7 6.7 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.4
Louisville 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.7 4.6 6.3 8.4 9.7 10.6 11.1 10.1 9.7 8.0 6.0 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.2
Syracuse 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.9 6.6 8.1 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.4 8.8 7.9 6.3 4.0 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Miami (FL) 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 4.7 6.2 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.5 10.1 9.4 8.4 6.8 4.9 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1
North Carolina St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 4.9 7.0 8.7 9.7 10.3 10.5 10.3 8.9 7.4 5.9 4.2 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
Clemson 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.0 7.0 8.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 9.8 8.6 7.0 5.4 3.6 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Virginia Tech 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.2 8.3 9.4 10.7 10.6 10.7 9.2 7.7 6.6 4.7 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.1 7.1 9.0 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.1 8.6 7.5 5.8 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0
Notre Dame 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.4 8.4 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.0 9.5 7.8 6.1 4.7 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Pittsburgh 7 - 13 0.6 2.1 4.3 7.2 9.1 10.5 11.0 10.7 10.2 9.5 7.6 5.8 4.5 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 6 - 14 1.3 4.0 6.6 9.7 11.5 12.4 12.0 11.1 8.7 7.4 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 6 - 14 1.3 4.1 7.4 9.8 11.4 12.3 11.8 10.7 9.0 7.0 5.3 3.5 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 29.9% 20.5 7.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Virginia 28.3% 19.0 7.3 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 16.6% 10.5 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 11.9% 7.5 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Louisville 10.1% 6.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 6.5% 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.1% 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 4.4% 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 3.7% 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.7% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 1.8% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 88.7% 21.7% 67.0% 2   16.6 13.7 11.5 9.9 7.9 7.2 6.5 5.2 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.3 85.6%
Virginia 88.1% 20.2% 67.9% 2   16.6 13.9 11.8 9.1 8.1 7.5 5.9 4.8 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 11.9 85.1%
Florida St. 76.2% 12.3% 63.9% 5   8.8 9.3 9.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 6.6 5.7 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.8 72.9%
North Carolina 69.9% 10.4% 59.5% 5   8.1 8.5 7.8 8.0 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 30.1 66.4%
Louisville 68.4% 8.3% 60.0% 6   6.0 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.1 5.4 4.7 3.6 3.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 31.7 65.5%
Syracuse 50.4% 5.5% 44.9% 10   2.0 2.9 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.5 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 49.6 47.5%
Miami (FL) 48.3% 4.5% 43.8% 10   1.8 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 6.2 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 51.7 45.9%
North Carolina St. 42.9% 3.9% 39.0% 1.0 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.5 5.5 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 57.1 40.6%
Clemson 40.9% 3.6% 37.2% 1.1 1.8 2.7 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.1 4.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 59.1 38.6%
Virginia Tech 38.4% 3.1% 35.3% 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 61.6 36.4%
Georgia Tech 35.8% 2.5% 33.3% 0.8 1.6 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.4 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.2 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 64.2 34.1%
Notre Dame 25.5% 1.9% 23.6% 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 74.5 24.0%
Pittsburgh 18.6% 1.0% 17.6% 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.4 17.7%
Boston College 8.9% 0.5% 8.3% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.1 8.4%
Wake Forest 9.7% 0.5% 9.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 90.3 9.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 88.7% 1.5% 88.1% 70.3% 44.6% 26.2% 14.9% 8.3% 4.4%
Virginia 88.1% 2.2% 87.0% 69.4% 44.0% 25.9% 14.4% 8.1% 4.4%
Florida St. 76.2% 3.1% 74.7% 55.7% 31.4% 16.5% 8.7% 4.1% 2.2%
North Carolina 69.9% 4.6% 67.9% 50.0% 28.2% 14.7% 7.3% 3.6% 1.7%
Louisville 68.4% 4.1% 66.3% 46.0% 24.2% 12.2% 5.8% 2.7% 1.2%
Syracuse 50.4% 4.7% 48.2% 30.5% 14.2% 6.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Miami (FL) 48.3% 4.1% 46.3% 28.5% 12.9% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5%
North Carolina St. 42.9% 3.7% 41.1% 24.1% 10.2% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Clemson 40.9% 4.0% 38.9% 23.2% 10.2% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Virginia Tech 38.4% 3.6% 36.6% 21.1% 8.6% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Georgia Tech 35.8% 3.6% 33.9% 19.5% 8.4% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Notre Dame 25.5% 3.4% 23.9% 13.8% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Pittsburgh 18.6% 2.8% 17.2% 8.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Boston College 8.9% 1.7% 8.0% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 9.7% 1.6% 8.9% 4.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.1 0.1 1.0 7.1 21.8 33.4 25.5 9.0 1.9 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 1.8 9.9 25.4 33.8 21.4 6.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.4 3.2 13.2 27.6 29.9 18.1 6.4 1.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 97.3% 2.5 2.7 15.9 33.6 29.9 14.0 3.5 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 80.0% 1.3 20.0 42.0 28.7 8.2 1.1 0.1
Final Four 53.2% 0.7 46.8 42.1 10.3 0.8 0.0
Final Game 30.2% 0.3 69.8 27.9 2.3
Champion 16.0% 0.2 84.0 16.0